October 9, 2025
The latest market data shows that ocean freight spot rates have fallen below break-even levels for the first time since the Red Sea crisis began. Analysts report that average freight rates on major routes have dropped to just above USD 1,000 per 40-foot container, marking the lowest level since late 2023.
Despite shrinking profit margins, shipping lines are prioritizing market share over profitability. Current break-even levels are estimated at around USD 1,100 per container, indicating that many carriers may face losses in the coming quarter.
Due to tariff fluctuations and weakened U.S. demand affecting global supply chains, shipping companies are canceling sailings at the fastest pace since the pandemic. In October alone, dozens of voyages were canceled on routes between China and the U.S., exceeding previous records.
Industry experts say this aggressive capacity reduction is a strategy to stabilize freight rates in a volatile market. Blank sailings on key U.S. trade routes have surged sharply this year, with West Coast–Asia services seeing the biggest cuts. Imports and exports between the two economies have declined for consecutive months, signaling a major shift in trade flows. Capacity control remains the main tool for carriers to manage rates amid falling demand.
