May 19, 2025
The sharp reduction in tariffs between China and the United States has formed a 90-day "tariff window period", and coupled with the peak season for container shipping orders, companies going to the US market are experiencing a peak in shipments. Affected by the tariff war in the early stage, some shipping companies transferred container capacity to routes such as Europe. The current capacity structure adjustment and surge in cargo volume have exacerbated market tensions.
On May 12, the day the policy was announced, the number of booking inquiries surged 3-4 times compared with the recent period, and a large number of foreign trade companies made emergency bookings. Considering the short-term stockpiling needs of American merchants, export volume is expected to rise rapidly, and the shortage of shipping capacity has led to a shortage of space on the US route. The market has seen a "rush to ship", and some routes are close to bursting.
Many shipping companies are optimistic about the early peak season of trans-Pacific eastbound trade, and will implement a general rate increase (GRI) from May 15: ONE will add $1,000 per 40-foot container, CMA CGM and others will add $2,000, and COSCO and others will add $3,000, and will continue to be implemented from June 1. At the beginning of May, the spot price of the US West Coast was about US$2,400/FEU. The industry expects that it may exceed US$3,000 in the next few weeks and may continue to rise after June. Data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange showed that the freight rates of the US West Coast and US East Coast increased by 3.3% and 1.6% month-on-month, respectively, showing market resilience.
It should be noted that the remaining 30% tariff may suppress the profits of some companies, and the actual scale of the rush to transport remains to be seen.
