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March 17, 2023
The National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates said in their March monthly Global Ports Tracker (GPT) that after last month's lowest level since May 2020, U.S. imports will start to climb this month and continue to grow month-on-month until at least mid-summer. But it would still be well below 2022 compared with the same period last year. "There are many uncertainties in the economy, but we expect moderate import growth in the coming months," Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the NRF, said in a statement.
Imports in February 2023 are expected to be 1.56 million TEUs, down 13.6 percent from January and 26.2 percent from February 2022, and the lowest import level since May 2020. GPT forecasts that imports will reach 1.74 million TEUs in March, then gradually increase to 1.87 million TEUs in April, 1.92 million TEUs in May, 2 million TEUs in June and 2.13 million TEUs in July. But year-on-year comparisons in 2023 will be much weaker than last year - down 25.9 per cent in March, 17.2 per cent in April, 19.7 per cent in May and 11.5 per cent in June. These numbers are essentially unchanged from last month's GPT forecast. By July imports were essentially on par with 2022, and are expected to have fallen just 2.5 percent from a year earlier.
Retailers say their main concern now is to avoid over-ordering products from Asian factories until they can better respond to consumer demand later this summer. That discipline will help avoid a repeat of the past two years, when retailers quickly rebuilt inventories to levels that exceeded consumer demand.
source:ZESTSHIPPING
